Exploring Future Energy Demand

What are the predictions about world energy use in the near future?

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook, 2013 

As the above graph shows, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that World energy consumption (how much energy the World uses) is going to grow over the coming years. The graph also shows that that growth is going to happen mostly in non-OECD countries. The OECD is a group of 34 of the more developed countries in the world, so we can deduce that much of the growth in demand for energy is going to happen in less-developed countries.

So, why is energy demand going to change?

When thinking about demands on energy in the future, we need to consider the different reasons that demand for energy might grow. There are two main reasons that future energy demands might increase and these are:
1. An increase in global population
2. Increasing development in less developed countries, especially the BRICs and MINTs (those countries predicted to develop fastest)

More people equals greater energy use, right?

Yes, the explanation for number one is fairly obvious. If 10 people use 100 kwh of energy every year, then 20 people will use 200 kwh. More people equals more energy use, which increases the demand for energy and puts pressure on energy supplies.

And the development thing?

A map to show World energy use per person (2003)

Source: Wikipedia

As the map above shows, it is the most developed countries that use the most energy per person. Why? Well, as a country develops, the amount of industry it has increases, and industry uses energy. Also, as a country becomes richer and more developed, people's standard of living improves. They start to acquire things that use energy - cars, refrigerators, TVs etc - and so the amount of energy needed per person increases. This also increases energy demands.

Source: By Shyaulis Andrjus (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Is there anywhere this has happened?

China and India (the I and the C in BRICs) are probably the best examples - India is expected to build 46 new power plants (places electricity is generated)  in the period 2013-2016, and in the same period China is expected to add another 160 power plants. China is predicted to account for 40% of the growth in energy demand over the next 30 years.